Maybe, maybe not: Probabilistic reasoning in preschool period

Abstract

Probabilistic reasoning needs careful consideration for the development of the child’s ability to interrogate and predict the likelihood based on the findings from the evaluation of various situations or events. Children, hence, will begin to experience metacognitive skills such as considering different causes and effects, decision-making and interpreting. This study aims to explore the probabilistic reasoning skills of preschool children according to the influential variables of gender and age. Typically developing 123 children who are enrolled in the city-centre preschools in Ankara constitute the study group. In the study, five questions were asked in the probability section of the Evaluation Instrument for the Early Mathematical Reasoning Skills developed by Ergül (2014) were posed to identify the probabilistic reasoning skills of the children. Each child was treated individually to gather detailed findings. Children’s explanations to the probability questions were evaluated in detail through the use of rubrics. Findings reveal that girls and boys do not differ significantly in their probabilistic reasoning skills; but, in line with the recent literature, these skills improve as they grow up.